Avian Flu Update

[robby]

I heard a radio interview with Dr. Marc Siegal, Associate Professor of Medicine at NYU, and he brought up a number of points that are reassuring:

The present strain is 5 to 20 mutations away from being easily transmitted human to human.

Many people point out that the present strain has a 50% death rate, but if a virus is able to spread quickly and over a wide area is is invariable less virulent. So when and if this H5N1 becomes pandemic it won't be as lethal as it is now.

The 1918 scenario is a worse case scenario. We have a much more advanced knowledge of epidemic control and medicine, and social conditions in 1918 that led to rapid infection are not present in 2005. We've had 2 flu pandemics since 1918, and it was not catastrophic.

People don't die from the flu, but rather from secondary infections, such as pneunomia. High risk people should probably get a pneunomia vaccination now.

Comments

yeah but

[icravediego.livejournal.com]

how long does it take to make 5-20 mutations?

Nonetheless, I'm glad *someone* is being reassuring. I read somewhere that the US is ordering only a fraction of the medication (?) that the UK ordered.

Re: yeah but

[robby.livejournal.com]

No one knows how long or even if the virus will mutate to a strain easily transmittable by humans. Mutations are random, and very quick for simple organisms such are viruses. There have been millions of random mutations in the pool of H5N1 virus in the last 24 hours. A sucessful mutation allows the virus to adapt and compete better and be more successful propagating itself. A really virulent virus would kill it's host and limit the spread of the virus, so virulence tends to be de-selected. That's why Ebola is not a global threat. People catch it and die so quickly that it doesn't get beyond a few villages in Africa.

Certain strains of the H5N1 virus already seem resistant to Tamiflu, and possibly the best choice might be getting a pneumonia vaccination.