Avian Flu Update
Oct. 14th, 2005 11:06 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
robbyI heard a radio interview with Dr. Marc Siegal, Associate Professor of Medicine at NYU, and he brought up a number of points that are reassuring:
The present strain is 5 to 20 mutations away from being easily transmitted human to human.
Many people point out that the present strain has a 50% death rate, but if a virus is able to spread quickly and over a wide area is is invariable less virulent. So when and if this H5N1 becomes pandemic it won't be as lethal as it is now.
The 1918 scenario is a worse case scenario. We have a much more advanced knowledge of epidemic control and medicine, and social conditions in 1918 that led to rapid infection are not present in 2005. We've had 2 flu pandemics since 1918, and it was not catastrophic.
People don't die from the flu, but rather from secondary infections, such as pneunomia. High risk people should probably get a pneunomia vaccination now.
The present strain is 5 to 20 mutations away from being easily transmitted human to human.
Many people point out that the present strain has a 50% death rate, but if a virus is able to spread quickly and over a wide area is is invariable less virulent. So when and if this H5N1 becomes pandemic it won't be as lethal as it is now.
The 1918 scenario is a worse case scenario. We have a much more advanced knowledge of epidemic control and medicine, and social conditions in 1918 that led to rapid infection are not present in 2005. We've had 2 flu pandemics since 1918, and it was not catastrophic.
People don't die from the flu, but rather from secondary infections, such as pneunomia. High risk people should probably get a pneunomia vaccination now.
